On 17 January 2017, a team of researchers from the Guttmacher Institute (a research and policy think tank that advocates for legal abortion) published a study in the peer-reviewed journal Perspectives on Sexual and Reproductive Health that estimated that the number of U.S. abortions had hit a historic low. They estimated that fewer abortions took place in the years 2013 and 2014 than in other year since 1975.
The estimate was derived from both surveys and extrapolations based on population data, as described in the paper:
In 2015–2016, all U.S. facilities known or expected to have provided abortion services in 2013 or 2014 were surveyed. Data on the number of abortions were combined with population data to estimate national and state-level abortion rates. The number of abortion-providing facilities and changes since a similar 2011 survey were also assessed.
The study found that the total number of abortions performed, as well as abortion rates (defined as abortions per 1000 women age 15-44), were both declining, with minor exceptions, in all parts of the country:
Overall, the abortion rate declined 14% between 2011 and 2014, while the number of abortions dropped by 12%. The rate declined in almost all states. Increases were generally small (1–4% in Arkansas, Kansas, Michigan, Mississippi, North Carolina and Vermont), but the District of Columbia had an increase of 15%. Three states experienced a decline in the abortion rate that was at least twice the national decline (Delaware, 41%; Hawaii, 33%; and Texas, 28%).
The findings have led both pro-life and pro-choice groups to take credit for the phenomenon. In an interview with NPR, Planned Parenthood president Cecile Richard reasoned that increased access to contraception was a major driver of the decline in abortions, saying that "It shows that we're finally doing a better job of helping women get access to birth control that's affordable and that's high-quality."
In a press release issued by the anti-abortion National Right to Life group, their president, Carol Tobias, suggested a major factor was that organization's efforts to “educate the country about the humanity of the unborn child, and our efforts to enact laws that help children and their mothers,” adding that:
When they see the child moving in the womb on an ultrasound, when they hear the heartbeat of the unborn child, when they know there are people and programs available to help them with a new baby and new circumstances, when they see what dismemberment abortion does to these precious children, the pain and agony that is involved in every chemical abortion, they look for life preserving solutions that are better for everyone involved.
The authors of the Guttmacher Study stated there was no easily identifiable primary cause for the decline in abortions. They broadly suggested that what they call both positive factors (e.g., increased access to higher quality contraception) and negative factors (e.g., reduced access to abortion providers) could have played roles:
[I]t is unclear whether the most recent decline in abortion is due to fewer women's having unintended pregnancies, more women's being unable to access abortion services or some combination of these dynamics. That there were fewer clinics providing abortions in 2014 than in 2011 could be attributed to several factors. In some states, increased abortion restrictions likely contributed to the decline in abortions, but in others, the decline may have been driven by a drop in demand. For example, increased reliance on [long-acting reversible contraceptive] methods likely contributed to the decline in unintended pregnancy that occurred between 2008 and 2011.